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A clearer view of a changing world.
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Desk
Artificial intelligence, robotics, medicine, longevity, energy, space, transportation, computing and discovery: the developments likely to shape the next decade, reported without presenting speculation as fact.
1
Demonstrated
What has actually been shown, measured and reproduced.
2
Attempting
What researchers and companies are trying to do now.
3
Predicted
What experts expect, with the record of past forecasts attached.
4
Speculative
What is possible in principle and supported by no result yet.
5
Would change the assessment
The specific evidence that would move an item between categories.
Two approved antibodies slow decline modestly in early disease. Blood tests can detect the pathology. Neither is a cure, and the question of what the disease fundamentally is remains open.
The Daily Edition Future Desk · 2 min read · Complete coverage
Ignition has happened. Net electricity has not. A guide to separating the physics results from the press releases.
2 min read
The assistant that knows your calendar, your inbox and your preferences is technically close. Whether people want one, and who it works for, are the questions that will decide what gets built.
2 min read
Humanoid robots walk convincingly in videos and fold laundry in laboratories. The gap between demonstration and deployment is wider than the videos suggest, and the reasons are instructive.
2 min read
Forecasts we record so they can be revisited. Real forecasts cite their source; illustrative ones are marked.
Illustrative
Entry-level clerical job postings in early-adopting sectors will decline by a fifth within two years of agent deployment.
Illustrative labor-economics estimate · made Sep 1, 2025 · horizon 2027-09-01 · The Development of AI Agents
Illustrative
By the end of 2026, agents will complete the majority of multi-hour clerical tasks without human intervention.
Illustrative vendor forecast · made Jun 1, 2025 · horizon 2026-12-31 · The Development of AI Agents
Outcome: Illustrative: an October 2026 evaluation in this scenario found completion below half on multi-hour tasks.
Illustrative
A blood test will be recommended for routine Alzheimer's screening in asymptomatic adults by 2027.
Illustrative diagnostics-industry forecast · made Mar 1, 2025 · horizon 2027 · Advances in Alzheimer's Research
Outcome: Illustrative: draft 2026 guidance in this scenario recommends testing only in symptomatic patients.
General-purpose humanoid robots will be sold for household use by 2027.
Several humanoid robotics companies (public statements) · made Jan 1, 2024 · horizon 2027 · General-Purpose Robots Are Learning, Slowly
Source: Company statements (various)
Illustrative
Interconnection queue reforms will reduce median wait times below three years by 2026.
Illustrative regulatory projection · made Aug 1, 2023 · horizon 2026 · Rebuilding the Electricity Grid
A fusion pilot plant will deliver electricity to a grid before 2035.
Several private fusion companies (public statements, 2021–2024) · made Jan 1, 2023 · horizon 2035 · The Future of Nuclear Fusion
Source: Company statements; see Fusion Industry Association reports
Anti-amyloid antibodies will show no clinically meaningful benefit in phase 3 trials.
A common position among skeptical researchers before 2022 · made Jan 1, 2020 · horizon 2023 · Advances in Alzheimer's Research
Outcome (Jul 6, 2023): Lecanemab and donanemab both showed statistically significant slowing of decline in phase 3; whether the effect size is clinically meaningful remains debated, so the refutation is partial in spirit.
ITER will achieve first plasma in 2025.
ITER Organization (2016 baseline schedule) · made Nov 16, 2016 · horizon 2025 · The Future of Nuclear Fusion
Outcome (Jul 3, 2024): In July 2024 ITER presented a new baseline moving the start of research operations to 2034 and full deuterium-tritium operation to 2039.
Source: ITER Organization